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November 24, 2023
How Close is the Collapse of the Neo-Empire?
The research company "U.S.S." recently conducted a sociological survey titled "Assessment of the Relationship Between the Federal Center and Regions by the Residents of the Russian Federation." The results highlight critical trends in public sentiment, suggesting that the seemingly unshakable state stability of the Russian Federation may, in fact, be a fragile illusion. Below are the key insights and comments from Alexei Belovol, Deputy Director of the "U.S.S." research company.
One of the most striking findings is the perception of Western sanctions. Nearly half of respondents—48.7%—identified sanctions imposed by the Western anti-Putin coalition as the main obstacle to improving their lives. This figure far exceeds complaints directed at local and central authorities, which were cited by 18.2% and 19.5% of respondents, respectively.
This sentiment underscores the effectiveness of the sanctions regime, which appears to be intensifying. The coalition's resolute stance suggests that pressure will continue to mount not only on Russia but also on those aiding its circumvention of sanctions.
Despite over 80% of respondents firmly rejecting the possibility of Russia's collapse or regions seceding, a noteworthy 10%—predominantly younger respondents aged 18-34—acknowledged the likelihood of Russia's disintegration in the coming years. This generational disparity hints at a potential fault line in public opinion that could deepen if federal subsidies decrease, a plausible scenario given the worsening budgetary crisis.
For instance, as of April 2024, Russia's federal budget deficit exceeded the planned figure for 2023, reaching 3.424 trillion rubles, with a sharp increase of 1.024 trillion rubles in April alone.
Certain regions, such as Chechnya, Tatarstan, the North Caucasus republics, and Bashkortostan, were frequently identified by respondents as being the most likely to break away. Even with public loyalty from figures like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, these areas are perceived as hotspots of potential instability.
Furthermore, 40% of respondents believe that local authorities are either insufficiently or completely incapable of representing their interests to Moscow. This indicates growing dissatisfaction with the central government's dominance. Upcoming local elections in September could potentially amplify these regional frustrations, setting the stage for greater autonomy and distancing from Moscow.
While state-controlled media continues to bolster Putin's image, citizens increasingly recognize the disconnect between televised narratives and local realities. The prevalent belief that "the czar is good, but the boyars are bad" may sustain Putin’s popularity for now, but the cracks in regional governance are becoming harder to ignore. This growing disillusionment poses a significant risk to the central government’s stability.
In absolute terms, over 25 million Russians believe that the war with Ukraine—termed a "Special Military Operation" (SMO) in Russia—should end, even without achieving the government’s proclaimed objectives. While more than 70% of respondents currently support continuing the war until "victory," the nearly 30% who oppose it represent a substantial force.
If even a fraction of this opposition were mobilized, it could pose a significant challenge to the regime. The potential for large-scale protests exists, with the only question being whether such movements can be organized effectively.
The survey highlights a clear trend: the younger the respondent, the less trust they place in the authorities. Among those aged 18-34, 33.8% oppose the war, a sentiment that reflects greater access to information, higher mobility, and less susceptibility to state propaganda.
This age group represents a highly volatile demographic, more willing to participate in protests and express dissent than older generations. They could serve as the spark for a larger revolutionary movement, with their discontent potentially spilling into broader mobilization efforts.
The survey underscores the precariousness of the Russian Federation’s current state. The combination of economic strain, regional dissatisfaction, generational divides, and growing opposition to the war creates a volatile mix. While Moscow retains control for now, the foundations of its power are showing signs of erosion.
If economic pressures continue to mount and regional discontent escalates, the "unshakable" stability of the Russian state may prove to be an illusion, with potentially dramatic consequences for its future.
For the full press release, click.
