Independence of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan: A Future Amid Russia’s Fragmentation

ModernRussia stands on the brink of sweeping changes. Political and social tensions are mounting, threatening internal conflict and potential repression comparable to Stalin’s rule. Let's examine the causes and consequences of these processes and concurrently explore the paths to independence for national republics likeTatarstan and Bashkortostan.

For centuries, Muscovy has oppressed indigenous peoples, and recent military failures, economic degradation, and the rupture of relations with the West have exposed the regime's vulnerabilities. The Kremlin is now forced to find scapegoats within the country, leading to persecution of "dissenters"and the suppression of national autonomies. Amidst the current instability, the indigenous populations of national republics face serious challenges. Promises of welfare and protection from Moscow are failing. Blackouts are becoming routine, and air defense systems are proving ineffective. Combatants returning from the "special military operation" are forming gangs, leading to an increase in crime and violence. Such disruption of daily life will only worsen in a country at war.

At a certain point, Russia was losing about a thousand soldiers daily on theUkrainian front, with most of them being representatives of indigenous peoples, such as the Tuvans, Yakuts, Bashkirs, Buryats, and Tatars. These indigenous groups are often used as "cannon fodder." Historically, groups like the Tatars, Bashkirs, and Chuvash were sent to the front in special regiments, and this practice continues today. What is it if not outright genocide?

Simultaneously, aggressive Russification is taking place in national republics, including school lessons where children are indoctrinated with ideas of Russian identity despite their own cultural backgrounds.

Muscovy views people from national republics as potential terrorists. "National autonomies" are accused of radicalizing Islam, increasing crime and terrorism, and contributing to the migration crisis. If migration reform is implemented, these autonomies will suffer even more: police terror, religious persecution, and bans on Islamic practices will intensify.

TheKremlin is preparing for a prolonged war and confrontation with the West, meaning the resources of national autonomies will be drained to benefit Moscow.Natural resources will be sold at dumping prices to dubious allies like North Korea or supplied to China and India.

Every nation has the right to its own path. Russia, choosing the path of war and repression, is quickly depleting itself as a state. Now, national republics like Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have a unique chance to declare (or rather affirm) their independence. Their natural wealth can ensure a stable position in a world where rare-earth elements are becoming new strategic resources.

Kazakhstan and Turkey could become financial donors and security guarantors for independent republics. The peaceful nature of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan would ensure their swift international recognition. Kremlin diplomacy, on the other hand, closes doors to the outside world, dooming the country to isolation.

Independence would grant these republics cultural and spiritual freedom. Islam and Orthodoxy in Russia are turning into state ideologies, far removed from true religious teachings. In independent countries, the population could shed the stigma of being "foreigners" and accusations of terrorism.

Only the declaration of independence, the return of ancestral lands, and the consolidation of active citizens will allow Tatarstan and Bashkortostan to emerge from the shadow of the Russian Empire and become full-fledged geopolitical and economic players on the international stage. This will enable them to build a new future, free from repression and conflict.

ShouldMuscovy lose the war, the country could disintegrate, creating an opportunity for the independence of the Idel-Ural republics and other regions. Currently, groups opposing Russian rule are already active in the Volga republics.However, achieving independence will require international support, including from NATO and the EU. The governments of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan in exile are actively working on a new constitution and attracting foreign allies.

Key to Russia’s Collapse: Prospects for the Independence of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan

Historically,Russia has been an empire expanding its borders by conquering other states and peoples. The Kazan Khanate and Bashkortostan were among the first major states to lose their independence under Muscovy’s onslaught. Today, these two republics – Tatarstan and Bashkortostan – are again in the spotlight as potential catalysts for the disintegration of contemporary Russia.

After the conquest of the Kazan Khanate in the 16th century, the Tatars and Bashkirslost their independence, marking the starting point for the subsequent expansion of the Muscovy-Russian Empire. Today, as Russia wages war againstUkraine and faces internal and external challenges, the prospect of independence for Tatarstan and Bashkortostan takes on new significance.

Moscow's pseudo-liberals and pseudo-opposition figures, the so-called "goodRussians," are barely willing to grant independence to certain regions and nations, not even to the already independent (but still occupied byKremlin-controlled local regimes) Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, which in essence has never been part of the so-called "Russian Federation".And they are certainly not ready (even now, without any real powers and obligations!) to recognize the right to freedom and independence of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. These two republics are key not only because of their strategic location but also because of the potential domino effect their independence could trigger. If Tatarstan and Bashkortostan declare their independence, it could lead to the decolonization of all of Russia.

The national liberation movements of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan are actively working both inside and outside Russia. Their activities aim to achieve independence and legitimize their goals in the eyes of the international community. Support for these movements from Ukraine and other countries could become an important factor in accelerating the processes of Russia's disintegration.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed the weakness of the Russian regime and intensified internal contradictions. National republics like Bashkortostan andTatarstan are forced to send their citizens to the front, causing growing discontent among the population. This discontent can be harnessed to strengthen independence movements and form national armed forces.

Ukraine and other countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Turkey,Kazakhstan, and the United Kingdom can play a crucial role in recognizing the legitimacy of the national liberation movements of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. This recognition would send a powerful signal to the peoples of these republics and help speed up the processes leading to their independence.

The independence of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan could become a pivotal moment in the history of colonial Russia, leading to its disintegration and transformation into a territory of small independent (post-Russian) states.This, in turn, would bring long-awaited peace and stability not only to the peoples of these republics but to the entire region. It is therefore important to initiate processes that will lead the peoples of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan to realize their identity and right to self-determination, which will be the first step on the path to their independence.

Prospects for Recognition of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan’s Independence by Ukraine

In recent years, there has been increasing discussion in Ukraine with regard to supporting national movements of the people subjugated by the Muscovite Empire.One of the most significant steps in this direction was recently taken when a bill titled "On the Basic Principles of Ukraine’s State Policy inInteraction with National Movements of the Colonized Peoples of the RussianFederation" was registered in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. This bill, proposed by 82 deputies from various factions and groups, calls for strengthening support for national movements striving for independence fromRussia.

The bill addresses numerous nations, including the Komi, Tatars, Udmurts, Tuvans, Circassians, Buryats, Oirat-Kalmyks, Yakuts, Karelians, Chuvash, and Bashkirs.The main goal is to promote the development of their cultures, languages, and media, as well as support military formations from these regions within theUkrainian armed forces. The deputies believe that Ukraine should actively support these peoples’ aspirations for self-determination, as it aligns with the national interests of the country.

One specific step proposed by Ukrainian deputies is the recognition of the independence of the Republic of Tatarstan. The initiators of the draft resolution on recognizing the state sovereignty and independence of theRepublic of Tatarstan refer to historical events such as the adoption of theAct of State Independence of the Republic of Tatarstan in 1991 and the 1992independence referendum, where the majority of citizens supported the republic’s sovereignty.

Similar initiatives concern Bashkortostan. In late 2022, a draft resolution on recognizing the state sovereignty and independence of the Republic of Bashkortostan was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada. The authors of the project believe that Ukraine should recognize Bashkortostan’s independence and establish diplomatic relations with it, calling on other states to follow this example.

The recognition of the independence of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan by Ukraine could have significant consequences on the international stage. It could encourage other countries to recognize these republics' independence, thereby weakening the Kremlin’s position on the world stage. Ukrainian deputies emphasize that the collapse of the Russian Empire and the success of indigenous peoples in developing their statehood is synonymous with Ukraine’s success.

Member of the European Parliament Anna Fotyga believes that the outcomes of the war inUkraine will have a decisive impact on the future status of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. She notes that the recognition of these republics' independence depends on Ukraine's successes in the war and the subsequent decolonization ofRussia. The European Parliament or other European institutions do not have the authority to recognize other states, but this can be done by individual EU member states. It is important that Ukraine continues to fight for its independence and supports national liberation and regional anti-colonial movements within Muscovy-Russia.

Ukraine's recognition of the independence of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan is a step that could significantly alter the geopolitical map of the region. This process requires international support and coordination, as well as the successful conclusion of the war in Ukraine. It is important to continue supporting the aspirations of the subjugated nations of the so-called "RussianFederation" for freedom and independence, which will ultimately contribute to the creation of a more stable and just world.