July 23, 2024
The energy blackout on Russia's borders has become a symbol of the current state of its frontier territories. These regions, caught in the crossfire of military actions, are engulfed in constant sirens and gunfire. Life here is marked by the lack of light, water, food, and adequate governance. Local officials urge residents not to panic and to come together to extinguish fires, catch saboteurs, and repair power grids.
The recent blackout in the Belgorod region, as well as in parts of the Kursk andVoronezh regions, vividly illustrates the Kremlin's attitude toward these regions that were conquered by Russia in the past. The ongoing war, driven by imperial ambitions, could make other regions the next victims. For instance,Moscow's continuous provocations of conflict with NATO threatenRussian-occupied regions like Ingria, Karelia, Kola Peninsula, and the BalticRepublic (Königsberg).
Solving this potential threat lies not so much in military or diplomatic victories overRussia but in the liberation of the temporarily occupied regions within Russia.A peaceful and civilized post-Russian space must replace the terrorist empire of the Russian Federation. This is essential for creating a new architecture oflong-term security in Europe and worldwide. Residents of the border regions must seriously think about their future. Leaving Russia might be their only chance for development, turning these regions into prosperous countries free from war, sanctions, and political persecution.
Last week, the Belgorod region and adjacent areas in the Kursk and Voronezh regions were plunged into darkness. Following Ukrainian drone attacks, up to 90% of the Belgorod region lost power. Traffic lights stopped working, water supply issues arose, and 150 kindergartens and several medical facilities were left without electricity. Power outages affected Belgorod, Stary Oskol, Volokonovka, and other localities. Authorities switched to backup power sources and used mobile loudspeakers to warn residents of potential missile strikes. Power supply disruptions also impacted the Voronezh and Kursk regions, with authorities implementing scheduled blackouts.
TheRussian Ministry of Defense's response was predictable — "they did their best" and allegedly managed everything. They reported shooting down 36Ukrainian drones over the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions. However, despite these ostensibly successful interceptions, the attacks caused significant power supply disruptions.
Moreover,Moscow's imperial ambitions and desire to make Ukraine its newest vassal have led them into a deadlock. Amid the worsening energy crisis in recent months, utility rates in Russia have risen by up to 15%. This has caused discontent among the population, already suffering from power outages. Authorities call on big business to ensure the security of their facilities, but this comes with several legal and practical issues. Moscow's inevitable retaliatory measures could have far more serious consequences for Russia. Authorities are desperately seeking ways to save infrastructure to calm citizens and contain dissatisfaction. However, at the moment, there are no anticipated deliveries of air defense systems for the Russian Armed Forces, and the idea of creating mobile fire groups has not gained widespread traction, possibly due to concerns among the "high command." Most solutions lie in the political sphere.Calls for big business to ensure security independently are of populist nature.First, it is the armed forces and police that should identify threats and use force; otherwise, we may see repeats of cases like with the Wagner PMC. Second, where can businesses buy air defense and electronic warfare systems? If the military-industrial complex has capacities, why aren't they used for the front and protecting regions like Crimea and Belgorod? Third, buying equipment is not enough; skilled specialists are needed. In wartime, an outflow of personnel to private companies could be critical.
TheRussian army is making significant efforts to create a buffer zone deep intoUkrainian territory. However, resistance along this path is substantial. The Belgorod region is fully becoming a war zone, similar to Donbas. The region is regularly shelled, leading to serious losses among civilians and businesses.
Itis evident that if Russia's military aggression achieves even partial success in its crimes against Ukraine, the army of the Moscow Empire, will attempt togo further, as it has done every previous time in history, occupying as many independent states as possible: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Lithuania.But NATO's immediate reaction in such a case would mean regions like LeningradOblast, Murmansk Oblast, Kaliningrad Oblast, and Karelia would follow the path of Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh.
Russia only understands the language of force; any concessions and diplomacy are perceived by it merely as a sign of weakness, effectively an invitation for further escalation (not de-escalation, it should be noted, and misunderstanding this mad expansionist nature of the Russian statehood is an unacceptable mistake, costing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of lives).
By continuing the war against Ukraine and confronting the global community,Kremlin and Vladimir Putin personally inevitably lead to the degradation of authority and livelihood in Russia. To date, more Russian soldiers have died in the war with Ukraine than in all of Russia's wars since World War II. This rapid fall into a "demographic pit" cannot be stopped by bans on abortions or appeals to traditional values.
Fora quarter of a century, the country has been ruled by oligarchs and officials who, using the FSB, create terrorist threats to intimidate the population, especially in Russian regions. Putin is ready to sacrifice these regions for his geopolitical ambitions and greed. Russian borderlands suffer daily from drone raids, explosions, and ammunition detonations, becoming hostages of war.
The term "blackout" has become a symbol of the current state of theRussian borderlands. To understand the scale of the problem, one only needs to look up information about the "blackout in Belgorod." Life in the borderlands today is constant sirens, gunfire, lack of light, water, food, andadequate governance. The Belgorod, Bryansk, and Voronezh regions only urge citizens not to panic and to hold on through enthusiasm. In the absence of authorities, residents are encouraged to unite to extinguish fires, catch saboteurs, and repair power grids. This raises the question: why is there government if residents have to do everything themselves?
The main task of the president, the ruling party, and officials is not the development of Russia but its reduction to a "buffer zone." The special military operation is conducted precisely for this purpose. What is happening in Belgorod is the displacement of the population, not because of the advance of the Ukrainian army, but due to the authorities' inability to ensure a normal life.
People live without light, water, and food, constantly seeking funds to restore their homes. Local authorities allocate only insignificant amounts for basic necessities. No one wants to answer questions about why drones reach Moscow andSt. Petersburg, why infrastructure objects in Volgograd and Krasnodar are destroyed.
TheRussian province is extremely vulnerable and will remain so if the authorities continue the senseless war. The country's life-support system cannot with stand the strain and is beginning to crumble before our eyes. Central media constantly report on fires, explosions, poisonings, and destroyed railway tracks.
People die in this war, money is spent on building roads in newly occupied territories, and life in Russia is gradually being destroyed. The authorities prefer migrants who drink alcohol at the "Eternal Flame" and beat upRussian boys. The south of Russia pays for Putin's adventure, and no one knows what will happen if tensions arise on the borders with NATO.
If the war continues, border regions like Ingria, Karelia, Kaliningrad, andMurmansk will turn into a "gray zone." The local population will be forced to leave, and the only thing authorities will undertake is distributing money.
Every border region can become a prosperous country without Putin, the FSB, war, and sanctions. Maybe it's time to stop pretending about "imperial unity"and leave Russia? This is the only way to preserve the population and territories and have a chance for development. A neglected region can become a thriving state, free from the "curse of Russian geography," Putin and the FSB.